UFC 284 predictions — Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski: Fight card, odds, preview, expert picks

Two of the UFC’s best collide on Saturday night in a massive champion vs. champion superfight in the main event of UFC 284. Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski will move up to the lightweight division to challenge 155-pound champ Islam Makhachev.

The fight is the first defense of the lightweight title for Makhachev after winning the vacant belt against former champion Charles Oliveira. Volkanovski has never lost in the UFC Octagon while going undefeated for nearly a decade in his professional career.

Volkanovski could join the short list of fighters who have managed to become two-division champions simultaneously. That list includes Conor McGregor, Amanda Nunes, Daniel Cormier and Henry Cejudo. Each of those champions were also successful in moving up in weight to capture the second title as Volkanovski will attempt to do.

With Volkanovski occupied, an interim featherweight champion will be crowned in the night’s co-main event. Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett will battle over the belt and a future shot at Volkanovski for the undisputed championship.

Rodriguez is a highlight-reel striker coming off a TKO via injury against Brian Ortega. Emmett has quietly worked himself into contention with big power and uncanny toughness, most recently defeating Calvin Kattar.

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With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 284 fight card, odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Islam Makhachev -400 vs. Alexander Volkanovski +310, lightweight championship
• Yair Rodriguez -190 vs. Josh Emmett +160, interim featherweight championship
• Jack Della Madalena -330 vs. Randy Brown +260, welterweights
• Justin Tafa -125 vs. Parker Porter +105, heavyweights
• Jimmy Crute -190 vs. Alonzo Menfield +160, light heavyweights
• Tyson Pedro -230 vs. Modestas Bukauskas +190, light heavyweights
• Josh Culibao -110 vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan -110, featherweights
• Kleydson Rodrigues -330 vs. Shannon Ross +260, flyweights
• Jamie Mullarkey -280 vs. Francisco Prado +230, lightweights
• Jack Jenkins -360 vs. Don Shainis +280, featherweights
• Loma Lookboonmee -310 vs. Elise Reed +250, women’s strawweights
• Shane Young -140 vs. Blake Bilder +120, featherweights
• Zubaira Tukhugov -650 vs. Elves Brenner +450, lightweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 284 picks, predictions

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Makhachev vs. Volkanovski

Campbell: Will size be the difference in Makhachev defending his lightweight title or is his combination of skills and the evolution of his striking enough on its own to outduel the wizardry of Volkanovski? The reality facing the reigning featherweight king is that we may never find out the answers to either scenario because Makhachev’s wrestling attack really is that dominant. The disciple of former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, who will not be in Makhachev’s corner at UFC 284, is dominant from both a technical standpoint and the relentlessly patient pursuit of a finish that looms over every fight. Volkanovski is closing in on the critical validation already of being considered an all-time great who is still in his prime but this matchup is just one bridge too far because Makhachev, the bigger man, is also that special. 

Brookhouse: In some ways, this pick is something of a reaction to the disrespect shown toward Volkanovski by oddsmakers. Volkanovski has most of the tools you would want in a fighter made to beat Makhachev. His striking is crisp with a mix of feints, kicks and movement that takes time to figure out, only for him to then change his pacing and angles and force you into something of a reset. Volkanovski also has good counter-wrestling, submission defense and the ability to create scrambles when put into bad positions on the ground. Size is obviously an issue and Makhachev may be able to just bull forward and muscle Volkanovski around, but there’s a good chance that Volkanovski works as a matador for the early rounds while trying to slowly tire his bigger opponent before taking the fight over in the second half.

Mahjouri: This fight is very much a modern-day version of grappler vs. striker. Makhachev, for all of his boasting, cannot keep up with Volkanovski’s speed, movement and striking. It is possible that Makhachev finds enough success with the takedowns that he catches a distracted Volkanovski on the feet — much like he did against Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov did against Conor McGregor — but that’s about it. It all comes back to Makhachev’s wrestling. I find it tough to believe that Makhachev won’t take down Volkanovski and I’m not swayed that the featherweight champ’s strong scrambling game will prevail over Makhachev’s boulder-like top pressure. Volkanovski will certainly show up on fight night with improved grappling and phenomenal cage awareness, but he’s in for a rough night unless he has newfound one-shot power up a weight class. Makhachev via submission or decision.

Rodriguez vs. Emmett

Campbell: Rodriguez has always been that firecracker of future potential who never quite fully proved he could live up to the early hype surrounding just how exciting and unpredictable of an action star he could be. Against Chan Sung-Jung in 2019, Rodriguez was competitive but seemingly on his way to a loss until he landed the ultimate Hail Mary with one second left in a five-round fight. But he finally appeared to fully put it all together in a fight — against former champion Max Holloway in 2021 — that was technically a close decision loss but turned out to be nothing but a critical victory for the way he carried himself and the sustained danger he inflicted. That was his coming-of-age moment on the elite level and that momentum has carried him into an interim title fight. Rodriguez needs to avoid lingering in the pocket given the raw power of Emmett. But Emmett’s biggest strength of durability can also be his biggest weakness, especially when the scar tissue receipts from previous wars come collecting at the worst moment. Rodriguez is the wrong fighter to come forward against in a straight line, which means that if Emmett can’t control the pace and terms of the fight and is forced to chase, what he’ll eventually find is his demise via pinpoint execution from a counter striker with fight-changing power.

Mahjouri: It’s finally feels time for Rodriguez to ascend to champion. Rodriguez has been labeled a surefire titleholder since his debut in 2015. A turbulent 2018, one where he was nearly released by the UFC and scored arguably the greatest KO in history against “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung, was the beginning of his rise from contender to title challenger. Rodriguez punishes foes with mean, dynamic strikes. His shortcoming is certainly his wrestling defense. Emmett is a great wrestler but often chooses to stand and bang. Emmett may just be the toughest fighter this sport has ever seen and packs a serious punch. He would be wise to commit to a wrestling heavy approach but considering his narrow victory against Calvin Kattar, I’m inclined to lean Rodriguez. This should be a competitive fight for as long as it lasts.

Della Maddalena vs. Brown

Campbell: Similar to the key placements in big spots that lightweight prospect Paddy Pimblett has recently received in his native England, Della Maddalena returns to his home city of Perth against Brown with a shot at solidifying his case as the future star in the making. The main difference from Pimblett, however, is that the MMA fan base doesn’t seem to carry much fear that Della Maddalena isn’t the real deal. The 26-year-old welterweight won all three of his debut UFC fights in 2022 by first-round TKO and his 2021 victory on “Dana White’s Contender Series” was the only fight in his 15-bout pro career that wasn’t a stoppage. Brown certainly presents enough of a threat to be a spoiler should Della Maddalena prove not quite ready to make the leap. But his striking is so fluid and powerful that it’s difficult to predict whether his first misstep is right around the corner or simply not happening any time soon.

Who wins UFC 284: Volkanovski vs. Makhachev? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 284, all from the incomparable expert who’s up nearly $12,000 on MMA in the past four years, and find out.