Volkov vs. Rozenstruik UFC Fight Night preview, odds, picks: TKO or bust for Rozenstruik – The Athletic

We have another UFC slate this weekend, coming off a one-week break. There are 12 consecutive weeks of fights that should take us through the entire summer.

Before we begin, I have to give a shoutout to Sam Hughes, who proved last event that we can find value anywhere, and put up an incredible performance en route to her first TKO finish inside the organization!

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This week we have a whopping 14 fights and a main event that features two dangerous hitters in the heavyweight division. I’ll be breaking down a few of my favorite fights from the event, but as always you can find the rest of my breakdowns on my site DailyFanMMA and extra information on Twitter at BrettAppley.

Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Our main event matchup this weekend is a classic stylistic clash between one fighter who excels at winning rounds, and one fighter who is largely dependent on winning via knockout. If you’ve followed my articles during the past year, you probably know which side I am leaning toward.

Alexander Volkov

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Odds

-160

+130

SSLpM

4.83

2.8

SApM

3.04

3.07

Striking Defense

53%

45%

Takedowns/15 min.

0.52

0

Takedown Defense

71%

75%

Alexander Volkov is one of the best kickboxers in the heavyweight division and he’s also one of the most consistent round winners when he gets a matchup where he can stand and trade.

Volkov is averaging 4.83 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 3.04 per minute with a 53 percent defensive rate. These metrics indicate to me that he is generally going to land more volume than his opponents, and that’s what has typically happened throughout his UFC career.

Like many fighters who excel at winning rounds, Volkov’s biggest troubles will come when he gets hit with one big shot, or gets removed from his ability to strike when opponents wrestle him to the mat. Looking through his UFC losses, they make a lot of sense.

Volkov is actually coming off a submission loss to Tom Aspinall, who was able to take him down early and finish with a straight arm lock. It wasn’t a spectacular performance from Volkov and has many worried about his future prospects, but Aspinall is a legit contender in this division and had clear advantages over Volkov on the ground.

We’ve also seen Volkov lose to Curtis Blaydes, who landed 14 takedowns over 25 minutes. Volkov simply is not an elite wrestler.

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Otherwise, his only other losses came against Ciryl Gane and Derrick Lewis. Gane is one of the best range strikers in this division, and Lewis famously knocked Volkov out with 11 seconds left in the fight after taking a beating for the first two and a half rounds.

On Saturday, Volkov will square off with Jairzinho Rozenstruik who falls very much into the category of Lewis. Rozenstruik will almost certainly need to land one big shot and knock Volkov out to get his hand raised.

The positive for Volkov here is that he won’t have to deal with a wrestling game plan from Rozenstruik, who has never even attempted a single takedown in the UFC. Fighters like Aspinall and Blaydes, and even Marcin Tybura bring a wrestling style that is an additional worry for Volkov because even when he’s able to trade at range, he needs to constantly be aware of the potential for them to shoot takedowns.

It should make the game more simple for Volkov that he no longer has to worry about takedowns against Rozenstruik. He will have to worry about that vicious knockout power, as Rozenstruik has knocked out his opponent in each of his seven UFC victories. 

Rozenstruik only lands 2.80 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.07 at a 45 percent defensive rate. Those are terrible metrics and indicate to me that Rozenstruik will consistently have trouble producing more offense than his opponents, and is largely dependent on one big knockout shot to have success.

It’s a style I hate to rely on and a style I hate to back from an investment perspective. It doesn’t mean these fighters can’t have success – even Rozenstruik won by knockout against Alistair Overeem with four seconds left in a 25-minute fight – you can never count them out. But it also means that they will be losing the minutes consistently, likely fall behind early and will be forced to catch up by swinging wildly in hopes of landing the one big blow.

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Rozenstruik is still capable of knocking Volkov out here. Volkov has been knocked down twice in the UFC, and knocked out once. His striking defense isn’t perfect. Rozenstruik has five rounds to work with and it’s possible he could lose four of them and still win the fight late.

However, I am always going to side with the round winner and that’s clearly Volkov. He will be five inches taller at least than Rozenstruik with a couple inches of reach over him as well, and he will get the fight he wants where he’s able to calmly trade at range without the worry of a takedown.

Volkov is very likely going to outstrike Rozenstruik consistently for five rounds, and I think Volkov winning by decision is the most likely outcome in this fight. Volkov can also win by knockout via attrition, which is certainly possible as we’ve seen Rozenstruik KO’d before.

On BetMGM, Volkov is priced at -160, which is an implied win rate of 61.54 percent, and I still think there is some value on that line. You can actually get this line at -150 on another book, which is even better value. 

If Volkov loses, it will likely come in the form of an early knockout, which in the heavyweight division is never an outcome I will dismiss. And if you like Rozenstruik to win, that’s still OK. 

I wouldn’t be playing Rozenstruik at his current +130 moneyline. I would instead look to bet him to win by KO/TKO, which you can find at +180 or better on other books across the industry.

It should be a great fight!

Movsar Evloev vs. Dan Ige

Movsar Evloev is one of my favorite fighters in the featherweight division and I can’t wait for this matchup against Dan Ige on Saturday.

Movsar Evloev

Dan Ige

Odds

-400

+310

SSLpM

4.32

3.9

SApM

2.79

3.47

Striking Defense

63%

57%

Takedowns/15 min.

4

1.35

Takedown Defense

71%

55%

Ever since Evloev made his UFC debut in 2019, I’ve felt he had potential to be a championship contender, and I am extremely interested in following his career to see if he can develop into a truly elite talent.

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Simply put, Evloev is one of the best wrestlers in this division. He is gifted technically, and carries a wide arsenal of takedowns that he can use to chain together and cause mayhem for his opponents. He’s also quite aggressive when he chooses to grapple, which when mixed in with his technical pedigree makes him an extremely difficult matchup for most opponents.

Evloev has won all five of his UFC bouts and is still undefeated at 15-0 professionally, but Ige may be one of his toughest tests to date. Ige is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and has a couple of early knockouts on his record, and I consider Ige among the toughest fighters in the division as well.

Ige won six fights consecutively before being tossed to the wolves in two main events against Calvin Kattar and Chan Sung Jung, which he lost, and I believe still shows that he has limited upside in this division. One major flaw in Ige’s game is that despite his submission grappling pedigree, he doesn’t wrestle very well.

Ige averages 1.35 takedowns per 15 minutes but he hasn’t had multiple takedowns in his last eight bouts. It’s just not a consistent path to victory for him. He’s also defending takedowns at a poor 55 percent, and was handled by Jung on the mat recently in 2021. Against a strong wrestler like Evloev, I think Ige is in trouble.

If you have some spare time, go back and watch Evloev’s last fight with Hakeem Dawodu and watch the first wrestling sequence from him in the first round. Evloev chains together some outside single legs, with an inside trip, and then runs through a double leg to the cage when Dawodu tries to scramble up. He then drags him to the center of the cage with a body lock and slams him to the mat before transitioning to the back. To me it shows the upside of Evloev. The aggressive, highly technical wrestling style. Good luck stopping it.

I personally don’t think Ige can stop it. Evloev is averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes and just landed nine against Dawodu. Jung was able to take Ige’s back multiple times and controlled him for more than 10 minutes, and it’s a recipe Evloev should be able to follow.

Still, I do have some concerns with Evloev’s game that I will at least mention. In general I question his physicality and athleticism, and I wonder if it will prevent him from reaching the peak of the division. He’s a good athlete, but not a physical monster.

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I also worry a little bit about his boxing. He actually rates out extremely well to the point that he might be able to outbox Ige if forced to. He lands 4.32 significant strikes per minute with a 63 percent defensive rate. But he tried to box Dawodu in Round 3 of his last fight to test himself out, and ended up getting mildly hurt.

I would just be afraid that if he wants to continue to test out his striking that he makes a mistake and gets punished for it. I’m also not 100 percent sold on his cardio, just given his relentless style, but Evloev seems quite confident in himself.

Realistically, Ige is going to need to knock Evloev out here. I don’t think he can stop Evloev from wrestling but he likely can survive on the mat, given that Evloev has only won by decision in the UFC. Ige will need to take advantage of the time when the fight stays standing, and try to bomb on Evloev to swing the momentum. It’s not an outcome I think is likely but it’s still a possibility.

On BetMGM, Evloev is favored at -400 which I honestly think is fair, and I don’t mind using him as a parlay leg on this slate. The easiest way to get a better price would be to bet Evloev by decision, which I think is the most likely outcome in the fight, and probably holds value at -150 on other books.

Tony Gravely vs. Johnny Munoz

One of my favorite preliminary matchups is a battle between two grapplers in Tony Gravely and Johnny Munoz.

Tony Gravely

Johnny Munoz

Odds

-140

+115

SSLpM

3.91

2.79

SApM

3.07

1.24

Striking Defense

47%

67%

Takedowns/15 min.

6.76

2.66

Takedown Defense

50%

0%

Gravely has a collegiate wrestling background and has had a lot of success in the UFC with his high-volume takedown game, averaging a massive 6.76 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. I consider him a quality wrestler with the ability to take down most opponents in this bantamweight division.

The problem for Gravely has come from the fact that he’s not the best control grappler, meaning that once he gets his opponent on the mat, he often has difficulty holding them down. He also doesn’t possess an elite submission grappling game, so there isn’t much threat from him once he gets in top position.

The other issue throughout his career has actually been his submission defense. Gravely has been submitted in five of his seven professional losses, including once in the UFC against Brett Johns. For a fighter who generally needs the takedown to win, that’s an obvious concern.

Munoz is another fun grappler and a talented submission artist. Unlike Gravely, Munoz doesn’t necessarily have an elite takedown game, though he can have success in that area. But also unlike Gravely, Munoz is highly dangerous once he gets the fight on the mat, capable of transitioning well, advancing position and finding a finish. Munoz is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and has earned seven of his 11 pro victories by submission, including his most recent victory in the UFC against Jamey Simmons.

The intriguing part of this matchup to me is the wrestler vs. submission grappler dynamic. Gravely will likely want to take Munoz down consistently, but he’ll be putting himself in the fire each time he does so.

Assuming the two grapple, Gravely has legitimate potential to land 5-10 takedowns in this fight, and win rounds with some top control. However, there’s also a legitimate chance in my mind that he gets reversed, or submitted in transition at basically any point.

Plus, Gravely only defends takedowns at 50 percent and so if Munoz is able to get a takedown of his own, he could easily take the back and hunt for a rear naked choke. Gravely will have almost no choice but to give up his back to stand up if he gets taken down, and I do expect Munoz to have a couple moments in this fight and a couple of opportunities to capitalize on a submission.

The other aspect is of course the striking, where I am much less confident how it will play out. Gravely is a more experienced and willing striker, so I would lean toward him having success over 15 minutes, but he’s also been knocked out before. Munoz is bigger, and probably capable, but he just hasn’t shown enough effective striking for me to pick him to win rounds with any consistency on the feet.

On BetMGM, this fight is lined very competitively with Gravely marked as the favorite at -140, and I would not play this line. I think if Gravely wins the fight, it is quite likely it comes by decision, and I would much rather target that decision prop at +190 or better.

Similarly, even though I think Munoz has a shot to upset, I don’t like his moneyline at +115. If the fight goes the distance, I would have almost no confidence that Munoz comes through. His best chance to win this fight cleanly is to win by submission, and I would much rather take a chance on that submission prop at +275 or better.

This is one of my favorite fights on the slate and I can’t wait to see these two tangle on the mat.

(Photo of Alexander Volkov: Kieran Cleeves / PA Images via Getty Images)